2013年7月31日水曜日

動き出した(?)東アジアの天秤

つまらない個人的備忘録的メモですので読まないことを推奨します。


7月30日は外交問題に絡むいろいろなニュースが一気に噴出した。
最も気になることは,安倍首相の国内案件のどこまでに米国の介入が入っているのかということである。
尖閣諸島付近における中国の動きに対しては,米国ははっきりと「非難する」と声明を出してくれているため,米国の立場が割とわかりやすい。
しかし,安倍首相が発言している国内案件については「支持する」とはっきりと表明してくれないがためにここ一連の流れは日本の独断であるのか,それとも米国からの外圧であるのか,断定ができないところである。

個人的な予想としては,もしも第二次日中戦争がはじまるのであれば,2017年までに尖閣諸島付近の海上自衛隊が攻撃され,改憲(報復は我慢)。
その後,国連で非難決議やらなんやらで国連軍が結成され,中国はひかず,2020年頃に開戦というストーリーを予想している。
それはともかく,7月30日の個人的に気になった記事をメモしておきたい。

7月30日の朝にまず気になったのが以下のニュースである。
安倍首相,対中関係打開に転じる=背景に米国の圧力―外務次官を北京に派遣(Record China 7月30日(火)7時35分配信)
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20130730-00000003-rcdc-cn


この記事の中に「バイデン米副大統領が7月26日,安倍首相の外遊先のシンガポールで会談を求め,早期の対中対話を迫ったから」と書いてある。
また,「この会談後,米ホワイトハウスは「バイデン氏が中国との関係改善を安倍首相に要請した」と公表までしている。」とまで強調されている。

このバイデンアメリカ米副大統領と安倍首相の会談内容であるが,日本と米国で公表内容が少し異なっている。
最も大きな違いは,北朝鮮問題について日本は記載していない点であるが,ここは些細な問題かもしれない。それよりも気になるのは,日本の公表内容には日本の安全保障強化策が書いてあること(しかも具体的に)と,所謂「2+2」や日米首脳会談の開催を行う予定が記載されている。この部分はホワイトハウスの発表内容から私は見つけることができなかった(私の調べる能力が圧倒的に不足している可能性も十分にある)。

私の受けた印象としては,アメリカの内容はアメリカは引き続き対話の重要性を訴えたと受け取ったが,日本の内容は対話に特に触れず,軍事力強化が主内容だったという風に感じられた。

以下はホワイトハウスのHPより私が見つけることができた記事と私の意訳。

The White House
Office of the Vice President
 For Immediate Release
 July 26, 2013

Readout of Vice President Biden's Meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan

Vice President Biden met today in Singapore with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan for wide-ranging and constructive discussions on the U.S.-Japan alliance and cooperation on regional and global issues.  The Vice President congratulated Prime Minister Abe on the recent election in Japan.  Both sides reiterated their shared view on the central importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance for regional peace and stability, and reaffirmed their shared goal of enhancing the alliance and expanding security cooperation.  The Vice President welcomed Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and stressed the importance of moving forward expeditiously toward a high-standard agreement to deepen trade and investment ties bilaterally as well as across the region. On regional security affairs, the Vice President reaffirmed the U.S. position on the East China Sea, including our alliance commitments, and highlighted the U.S. view that all sides should take steps to reduce tensions.  Regarding North Korea, the two sides agreed on the importance of close U.S.-Japan coordination as well as engagement with other partners in the region in addressing North Korea's provocations and the need to live up to its denuclearization obligations.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/07/26/readout-vice-president-bidens-meeting-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-japan

ホワイトハウス
副大統領オフィスより
速報
2013年7月26日

日本の安倍晋三首相とのバイデン副大統領会談要旨

バイデン副大統領は本日,訪問先のシンガポールにおいて,地域や世界的な問題に関して日米同盟が果たすべき役割について,広範囲で建設的な議論を行うために日本の安倍晋三首相と会談を行いました。
副大統領は先日行われた参議院議員選挙について安倍首相に祝意の表明を行いました。
両氏は,地域の平和と安定のために,日米同盟の重要性を確認しあうと共に,同盟の強化と安全保障協力の拡大という共通の目標を再度確認しあいました。
副大統領は,環太平洋連携協定(TPP)への日本の参加を歓迎すると共に,地域全体はもちろんのこと,両国の貿易と投資の結びつきを深めるために高水準な合意へ向けて迅速に前進することの重要性を強調しました。
また,副大統領は,地域の安全保障情勢に関して,米国の同盟責任を含む,東シナ海における米国の立場について再確認するとともに,あらゆる側が緊張緩和のための措置を講じなければならないという米国の考えを強調しました。
北朝鮮に関して,北朝鮮の挑発行為と非核化義務の遵守を求めていくことに関して,地域の他のパートナーとの協約と同様に,日米の緊密な連携が重要であるとの認識で両国が一致しました。


そして以下が日本の首相官邸より公表されている記事。

バイデン米国副大統領による安倍総理表敬(概要)

26日13時45分から約55分間,シンガポール出張中の安倍総理は,同じく同国を訪問中のバイデン副大統領による表敬を受けたところ,概要以下のとおり。
1.冒頭発言
冒頭,バイデン副大統領より,先般の参院選の勝利に対する祝意の表明があった。安倍総理からは,アジア太平洋地域の安全保障環境が厳しさを増す中,地域の平和と安定の礎として日米同盟の重要性はかつてなく高まっており,バイデン副大統領との間で日米両国の連携をしっかり確認したい旨述べた。
2.アジア太平洋地域情勢
(1)両者は,アジア太平洋地域は経済の面からも安全保障の面からもその重要性が増していることを確認し,その中で日米同盟を強化していくことの重要性につき一致した。
(2)バイデン副大統領より,米国のアジア太平洋重視政策(リバランス)につき説明があり,その中で日本の戦略的役割を重視している旨述べた。また,同副大統領より,その観点からもTPP交渉の成功を重視している旨述べた。
(3)安倍総理より,アジア太平洋地域の戦略環境が大きく変化する中,経済成長を続け発言力も増しているASEANの重要性は益々増大している旨述べ,このために政権発足後最初の外遊先にASEANを選び,その後のミャンマーに続き,今回も訪問している旨説明した。また,バイデン副大統領のシンガポール訪問を含め,米国の地域への関与を歓迎する,10月のASEAN関連首脳会議に向け連携を強化したい旨述べた。
(4)中国に関し,安倍総理より,日中関係は日本にとって最も重要な二国間関係の一つであり,対話のドアは常にオープンであるとの日本の基本的立場につき言及した。
3.日米関係
(1)安倍総理より,今後,防衛大綱の見直し,NSCの設置に向けた法案の提出等,我が国の安全保障の強化に向けた取組を進めていく旨説明し,「2+2」をはじめ日米で緊密に意思疎通していきたい旨述べた。また,安倍総理より,在沖縄海兵隊のグアム移転に関し,適切な予算確保と資金凍結解除が行われるよう,上院への働きかけを要請した。
(2)安倍総理より,我が国のTPP交渉への参加に言及した。両者は,TPPは経済面に加え日米同盟強化や戦略的観点からも重要であるとの点で一致した。
(3)安倍総理より,ケネディ新駐日大使の指名を歓迎する旨述べた上で,これまでのルース大使の取組に敬意を表し,ケネディ新大使の活躍に期待する旨述べた。これに対しバイデン副大統領より,ケネディ新大使は素晴らしい人物である旨発言があった。
(4)両者は,今後機会を見て日米首脳会談を行っていくことで一致した。

http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/kaidan/page4_000133.html

「2+2」とは,日米安全保障協議委員会のこと。各国の外務,国防のトップがそれぞれ出席して臨む会議。日本の外務大臣と防衛大臣,米国の国務長官と国防長官,計4名により,日米関係や国際関係などについて話し合う。


この会談を受けて,7月30日,前述の中国への派遣だけでなく,以下の内容を安倍首相は発表した。

「日本版NSC」年内発足 首相,来春から前倒し指示
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20130730-00000082-san-pol

<集団的自衛権>「行使容認」臨時国会で表明検討
http://dailynews.yahoo.co.jp/fc/domestic/collective_self_defense/

上記ニュースに関連する内容

国家安全保障基本法案
https://d8dc8da5651c9cc8a1b4-03f6d6805dfc858e9204edf35efce76b.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/policy/policy_topics/pdf/seisaku-137.pdf

安全保障の法的基盤の再構築に関する懇談会
(見つけることができず)


午前中にヤフーニュースを見ていた時は,中国への斎木昭隆外務次官派遣は「平和的解決方法の模索の提案」だと私は信じていたのだが,午後の内容を考えると本当にそうだといえる自信がなくなった。


 いったい米中首脳会談ではどのような内容が話され,今の流れにあるのか。
これからの日米中の動きに注目していきたい。
(韓国の霊圧が・・・消えた・・・?)

最後に,米中首脳会談のホワイトハウス記事(私が見つけられたもの。意訳はなし。長すぎて気力が持たなかった…。)

The White House
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release June 08, 2013

Remarks by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China After Bilateral Meeting

Sunnylands Retreat
Rancho Mirage, California

8:09 P.M. PDT

PRESIDENT OBAMA:  Everybody ready?  Well, I know we’re a little behind, but that’s mainly because President Xi and I had a very constructive conversation on a whole range of strategic issues, from North Korea to cyberspace to international institutions.  And I’m very much looking forward to continuing the conversation, not only tonight at dinner but also tomorrow.
But I thought we’d take a quick break just to take a question from both the U.S. and Chinese press.  So what I’ll do is I’ll start with Julie Pace and then President Xi can call on a Chinese counterpart.
Q    Thank you, Mr. President.  How damaging has Chinese cyber-hacking been to the U.S.?  And did you warn your counterpart about any specific consequences if those actions continue?  And also, while there are obviously differences between China’s alleged actions and your government’s surveillance programs, do you think that the new NSA revelations undermine your position on these issues at all during these talks?
And President Xi, did --
PRESIDENT OBAMA:  Why don’t you let the interpreter --
Q    And President Xi, did you acknowledge in your talks with President Obama that China has been launching cyber attacks against the U.S.?  Do you also believe that the U.S. is launching similar attacks against China?  And if so, can you tell us what any of the targets may have been?  Thank you.
PRESIDENT OBAMA:  Well, Julie, first of all, we haven’t had, yet, in-depth discussions about the cybersecurity issue.  We’re speaking at the 40,000-foot level, and we’ll have more intensive discussions during this evening’s dinner.
What both President Xi and I recognize is that because of these incredible advances in technology, that the issue of cybersecurity and the need for rules and common approaches to cybersecurity are going to be increasingly important as part of bilateral relationships and multilateral relationships.
In some ways, these are uncharted waters and you don’t have the kinds of protocols that have governed military issues, for example, and arms issues, where nations have a lot of experience in trying to negotiate what’s acceptable and what’s not.  And it’s critical, as two of the largest economies and military powers in the world, that China and the United States arrive at a firm understanding of how we work together on these issues.
But I think it’s important, Julie, to get to the second part of your question, to distinguish between the deep concerns we have as a government around theft of intellectual property or hacking into systems that might disrupt those systems -- whether it’s our financial systems, our critical infrastructure and so forth -- versus some of the issues that have been raised around NSA programs.
When it comes to those cybersecurity issues like hacking or theft, those are not issues that are unique to the U.S.-China relationship.  Those are issues that are of international concern.  Oftentimes it’s non-state actors who are engaging in these issues as well.  And we’re going to have to work very hard to build a system of defenses and protections, both in the private sector and in the public sector, even as we negotiate with other countries around setting up common rules of the road.
And as China continues in its development process and more of its economy is based on research and innovation and entrepreneurship, they’re going to have similar concerns, which is why I believe we can work together on this rather than at cross-purposes.
Now, the NSA program, as I discussed this morning, is a very limited issue, but it does have broad implications for our society because you’ve got a lot of data out there, a lot of communications that are in cyberspace.  And how we deal with both identifying potential terrorists or criminals, how the private sector deals with potential theft, and how the federal government, state governments, local governments and the private sector coordinate to keep out some of these malicious forces while still preserving the openness and the incredible power of the Internet and the web and these new telecommunications systems -- that’s a complicated and important piece of business.  But it’s different from these issues of theft and hacking.
And every government is then inevitably going to be involved in these issues, just like big companies are going to be involved in these issues.  I mean, you’ve got private companies that have a lot more data and a lot more details about people’s emails and telephone calls than the federal government does.  And if we’re called upon not only to make sure that we’re anticipating terrorist communications but we’re also called upon to work with the private sector to prevent theft out of ATMs, et cetera, then we’re going to have to find ways to deal with this big data in ways that are consistent with our values; in ways that protect people’s privacy, that ensure oversight, and strike the right balance.
And as I indicated this morning, that’s a conversation that I welcome having.
PRESIDENT XI:  (As interpreted.)  As President Obama said, in our meeting this afternoon we just briefly touched upon the issue of cybersecurity.  And the Chinese government is firm in upholding cybersecurity and we have major concerns about cybersecurity.
In the few days before President Obama and I meet today, I note sharp increased media coverage of the issue of cybersecurity.  This might give people the sense or feeling that cybersecurity as a threat mainly comes from China or that the issue of cybersecurity is the biggest problem in the China-U.S. relationship.
The application of new technology is a double-edged sword.  On the one hand, it will drive progress in ensuring better material and cultural life for the people.  On the other hand, it might create some problems for regulators and it might infringe upon the rights of states, enterprises, societies and individuals.
We need to pay close attention to this issue and study ways to effectively resolve this issue.  And this matter can actually be an area for China and the United States to work together with each other in a pragmatic way.  And I'm happy to learn that within the context of the China-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue, a working group has been established to discuss cybersecurity issues.  So this is an issue that the two sides will continue to discuss.
By conducting good-faith cooperation we can remove misgivings and make information security and cybersecurity a positive area of cooperation between China and the U.S.  Because China and the United States both have a need and both share a concern, and China is a victim of cyber attacks and we hope that earnest measures can be taken to resolve this matter.
Thank you.
Q    I’m with China Central Television and my question for President Xi is, what are the main issues that were discussed in the longer-than-expected meeting this afternoon?  And what are the major areas of consensus that have emerged from the discussion?  And last year, when you were visiting the United States, you raised the concept of the two sides working together to explore what you call a new model of major country relationship, something that is unprecedented in the relationship and that can inspire future generations.  And after this concept was raised, there has been much discussion and comment on it, both in China and the United States and in the world more broadly.  So did you have further discussion on this issue in your meeting this afternoon?
And my question for President Obama is, what will the United States do to contribute to the building of a new model of major country relationship between China and the U.S.?
PRESIDENT XI:  (As interpreted.)  In the first meeting that I’ve had with President Obama this afternoon, we had an in-depth, sincere and candid discussion on the domestic and foreign policies of China and the United States, on our joint work to build a new model of major country relationship, and our international and regional issues of mutual interest.  And the President and I reached important consensus on these issues.
I stated very clearly to President Obama that China will be firmly committed to the path of peaceful development and China will be firm in deepening reform and opening up the country wider to the world.  China will work hard to realize the Chinese dream of the great national renewal and will work hard to push forward the noble cause of peace and development for all mankind.
By the Chinese dream, we seek to have economic prosperity, national renewal and people’s well-being.  The Chinese dream is about cooperation, development, peace and win-win, and it is connected to the American Dream and the beautiful dreams people in other countries may have.
President Obama and I both believe that in the age of economic globalization and facing the objective need of countries sticking together in the face of difficulties, China and the United States must find a new path -- one that is different from the inevitable confrontation and conflict between the major countries of the past.  And that is to say the two sides must work together to build a new model of major country relationship based on mutual respect and win-win cooperation for the benefit of the Chinese and American peoples, and people elsewhere in the world.
The international community looks to China and the United States to deliver this.  When China and the United States work together, we can be an anchor for world stability and the propeller of world peace.
I stand ready to work with President Obama to expand on all levels of exchanges between the two sides.  I look forward to maintaining close communication with the President through mutual visits, bilateral meetings, exchange of letters and phone calls. And I invited President Obama to come to China at an appropriate time for a similar meeting like this.  And we look forward to visiting each other country.
At the same time, the two sides will work hard to make progress in the various bilateral mechanisms, such as the strategic and economic dialogue and the high-level consultation on people-to-people exchange.  Also, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Minister of National Defense will both make visits to the United States within the year.
Our two sides should also step up exchanges and cooperation in economy and trade, energy, environment, people-to-people, and cultural fields, as well as at the sub-national level, so that we can deepen the shared interests of the two countries and expand them to all areas.
We should also improve and strengthen the military-to-military relationship between the two countries and promote the building of a new model of military relationship between the two sides.  The two sides should also improve coordination microeconomic policies so that by strengthening cooperation, we can contribute to our respective development at home, and promote strong, sustainable and balanced economic growth in the Asia Pacific region and the world at large.
And I’m confident in our joint effort to build a new model of major country relationship.  I believe success hinges on the human effort.  Firstly, both sides have the political will to build this relationship.  Secondly, our cooperation in the last 40 years provides a good foundation for us to build on.  Thirdly, between China and the United States, there are over 90 intergovernmental mechanisms which provide the institutional underpinning for our efforts.
Fourth, there is strong public support for this kind of relationship between China and the United States.  There are 220 pairs of sister provinces, states and cities between China and the U.S.  There are 190,000 Chinese students in the United States, and 20,000 American students in China.
And 5th, there is enormous scope for future cooperation between China and the U.S.
Of course, this endeavor is unprecedented and one that will inspire future generations.  So we need to deepen our mutual understanding, strengthen our mutual trust, further develop our cooperation and manage our differences so that we can avoid the traditional path of inevitable confrontation between major countries and really embark on a new path.
The Chinese nation and American nation are great nations, and the Chinese people and American people are great peoples.  As long as we stand high and look far, as long as we make specific progress and accumulate them over time, as long as we maintain confidence and determination, as long as we have wisdom and patience, I'm confident that we will succeed in achieving this historical mission.
I'm sorry for going too long.  Thank you.
PRESIDENT OBAMA:  Well, I think President Xi summarized very well the scope of our conversations.  We spoke about some very specific issues -- for example, President Xi mentioned the importance of military-to-military communications.  In the past, we've had high-level diplomatic communications about economic and strategic issues, but we haven't always had as effective communications between our militaries.  And at a time when there's so much activity around the world, it's very important that we each understand our strategic objectives at the military as well as the political levels.  So that's an example of concrete progress that can advance this new model of relations between the United States and China.
So we'll be taking steps to institutionalize and regularize such discussions.  But more broadly, I think President Xi identified the essence of our discussions in which we shared our respective visions for our countries' futures and agreed that we're more likely to achieve our objectives of prosperity and security of our people if we are working together cooperatively, rather than engaged in conflict.
And I emphasized my firm belief to President Xi that it is very much in the interest of the United States for China to continue its peaceful rise, because if China is successful, that helps to drive the world economy and it puts China in the position to work with us as equal partners in dealing with many of the global challenges that no single nation can address by itself.
So, for example, neither country by itself can deal with the challenge of climate change.  That's an issue that we'll have to deal with together.  China as the largest country, as it continues to develop, will be a larger and larger carbon emitter unless we find new mechanisms for green growth.  The United States, we have the largest carbon footprint per capita in the world; we've got to bring down our carbon levels in order to accommodate continued growth.  And so that will translate then into opportunities for specific work around green technologies and research and development, and interactions between our scientists so that we can, together, help advance the goal of a sustainable planet, even as we continue to grow and develop.
We've got a lot of work to do to take these broad understandings down to the level of specifics, and that will require further discussions not only today and tomorrow, but for weeks, months, years to come.  But what I'm very encouraged about is that both President Xi and myself recognize we have a unique opportunity to take the U.S.-China relationship to a new level.  And I am absolutely committed to making sure that we don't miss that opportunity.
Thank you very much, everybody.
END
8:47 P.M. PDT

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/08/remarks-president-obama-and-president-xi-jinping-peoples-republic-china-

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